Tag Archives: growth

Climate – The Sting is in the Tails

Posted on September 23, 2022 by markcliffe

Why increasing volatility in the weather has more immediate impact than global warming Scientists have long warned that climate change will adversely affect weather patterns and living conditions around the world. These warnings are turning into a painful reality. Worse, … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate Change, Sustainability | Tagged Extreme weather, Forecasting, global economy, growth, Risk Management, Scenarios, Uncertainty | Leave a comment

Sustainable Recovery Must Be More Than Green

Posted on June 10, 2020 by markcliffe

In an article for Project Syndicate, entitled “A Sustainable Recovery Must Be More Than Green” I argue that climate action needs to be closely tied to the urgent need to protect jobs and livelihoods. Otherwise, it risks becoming yet another … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate Change, Macroeconomics, Pandemic, Politics, Sustainability | Tagged Climate Change, Covid-19, Digital, Economics, employment, fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, Pandemic, Politics, Sustainability, Technology | 1 Comment

Pandenomics – 15 ways that Covid-19 could change the world

Posted on April 7, 2020 by markcliffe

The Covid-19 pandemic leaves us wrestling with a callous calculus: a crude and capricious trade-off between the tragic and huge loss of life and the many more livelihoods that will be lost. We are nowhere near knowing how bad it … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomics, Politics, Sustainability | Tagged China, consumers, Covid-19, Digital, Economics, employment, EU, financial markets, fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, Innovation, Interest rates, monetary policy, Pandemics, Policy, regulation, Sustainability, Technology, Trade, US | 3 Comments

GDP – a Digital Remix

Posted on October 24, 2019 by markcliffe

In a recent article for Project Syndicate, I argue that more than a decade after the global financial crisis, macroeconomists have failed to absorb three crucial sets of lessons. The models that most are using are still struggling to … Continue reading →

Posted in Economic Growth, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Technology | Tagged Digital, E-commerce, Economics, growth, Innovation, Investment, Productivity, Technology, US | 1 Comment

Time for Macroeconomics to be Remastered

Posted on September 10, 2019 by markcliffe

A decade on from the financial crisis, economists have still to learn three crucial sets of lessons. Continue reading →

Posted in Economic Forecasting, Inequality, Macroeconomics, Politics, Sustainability, Technology | Tagged Economic Forecasting, Economics, Globalization, growth, Policy, Politics, Technology | Leave a comment

Confessions of an Economic Forecaster

Posted on November 7, 2016 by markcliffe

Economists’ forecasts are notoriously inaccurate. This fallibility is hardly a great surprise given that we live in an irretrievably uncertain world. So why do we keep doing it? What can we learn? Here are my eighteen secrets and myths about the … Continue reading →

Posted in Big Data, Bond Markets, Economic Forecasting, Macro, Macroeconomics, Politics | Tagged asset prices, Big Data, bond markets, economic cycle, Economic Forecasting, financial markets, growth, Macroeconomics, Policy, Politics | 2 Comments

Savers are Negative on Negative Rates

Posted on February 12, 2016 by markcliffe

In recent weeks market turmoil has put negative interest rates firmly on to the centrals banks’ agenda. The Bank of Japan sprang a surprise by following the European Central Bank in moving into negative territory, and there is even talk … Continue reading →

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged Economic Growth, Economics, EMU, financial markets, global economy, growth, Macroeconomics, monetary policy, negative rates, saving | 9 Comments

EMU Break-up: Pay Now, Pay Later

Posted on December 11, 2011 by markcliffe

ING’s economics and strategy team has updated its report quantifying the impact of a possible fracture of Europe’s monetary union. emubreakup 011211The revised estimates suggest an even bigger blow to the region’s output: in a complete break-up the loss could … Continue reading →

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged Economics, employment, EMU, financial markets, financial system, Foreign exchange, global economy, growth, Interest rates, monetary policy | 1 Comment

The New Financial World

Posted on October 20, 2010 by markcliffe

The financial crisis is a major analytical challenge that will keep economists occupied for years to come. In a report published in 2008, I looked forward to the future shape of the financial world. Here’s a short summary: The new … Continue reading →