Tag Archives: growth

Confessions of an Economic Forecaster

Economists’ forecasts are notoriously inaccurate. This fallibility is hardly a great surprise given that we live in an irretrievably uncertain world. So why do we keep doing it? What can we learn? Here are my eighteen secrets and myths about the … Continue reading

Posted in Big Data, Bond Markets, Economic Forecasting, Macro, Macroeconomics, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Savers are Negative on Negative Rates

In recent weeks market turmoil has put negative interest rates firmly on to the centrals banks’ agenda. The Bank of Japan sprang a surprise by following the European Central Bank in moving into negative territory, and there is even talk … Continue reading

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

EMU Break-up: Pay Now, Pay Later

ING’s economics and strategy team has updated its report quantifying the impact of a possible fracture of Europe’s monetary union. emubreakup 011211The revised estimates suggest an even bigger blow to the region’s output: in a complete break-up the loss could … Continue reading

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The New Financial World

The financial crisis is a major analytical challenge that will keep economists occupied for years to come. In a report published in 2008, I looked forward to the future shape of the financial world. Here’s a short summary: The new … Continue reading

Posted in Macroeconomics | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments