Tag Archives: global economy

Climate – The Sting is in the Tails

Posted on September 23, 2022 by markcliffe

Why increasing volatility in the weather has more immediate impact than global warming Scientists have long warned that climate change will adversely affect weather patterns and living conditions around the world. These warnings are turning into a painful reality. Worse, … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate Change, Sustainability | Tagged Extreme weather, Forecasting, global economy, growth, Risk Management, Scenarios, Uncertainty | Leave a comment

Looking for Trouble

Posted on April 28, 2016 by markcliffe

How politics could fuel downside risks to global markets It is easy to find downside risks to the outlook for the global economy and markets. Worse still, a recent ING report, entitled ‘Looking For Trouble’, highlights doubts about the ability … Continue reading →

Posted in Brexit, Economic Growth, Macro, Macroeconomics, Politics, US Election | Tagged Brexit, Economics, fiscal policy, global economy, helicopter money, Macroeconomics, monetary policy, Policy, Politics, US | Leave a comment

Savers are Negative on Negative Rates

Posted on February 12, 2016 by markcliffe

In recent weeks market turmoil has put negative interest rates firmly on to the centrals banks’ agenda. The Bank of Japan sprang a surprise by following the European Central Bank in moving into negative territory, and there is even talk … Continue reading →

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged Economic Growth, Economics, EMU, financial markets, global economy, growth, Macroeconomics, monetary policy, negative rates, saving | 9 Comments

Globalization Disrupted : Will world trade continue to disappoint?

Posted on December 2, 2014 by markcliffe

Since the onset of the financial crisis, world trade is no longer growing twice as fast as output. I examine the reasons behind this in this presentation, an updated version of one produced to support a panel debate at a … Continue reading →

Posted in Economic Growth, Macro, Macroeconomics, Technology, Uncategorized | Tagged China, Economic Growth, Economics, FDI, Germany, global economy, Globalization, Investment, Offshoring, Technology, Trade, Trade Liberalisation, US | 2 Comments

The New Abnormal

Posted on November 7, 2014 by markcliffe

It’s remarkable how pervasive ‘New Normal’ thinking still is, despite innumerable economic and financial market shocks. Forecasters continue to assume that the global economy will gravitate towards low but stable growth, regulators still aim to deliver a more stable financial … Continue reading →

Posted in Bond Markets, Economic Growth, EMU, Innovation, Macro, Macroeconomics, Productivity, Technology, Uncategorized, US Treasury Bonds | Tagged asset prices, bond markets, ECB, economic cycle, European Central Bank, financial markets, Foreign exchange, global economy, Innovation, Interest rates, Productivity, regulation, Technology | 3 Comments

US triumphs in the World Economic Cup

Posted on June 12, 2014 by markcliffe

The legendary manager of Liverpool, Bill Shankly, once said, “Some people believe football is a matter of life and death… I can assure you it is much, much more important than that.” I’m tempted to agree, but sadly I get … Continue reading →

Posted in Economic Growth, Football, Macro, Macroeconomics, Productivity, World Cup | Tagged Economic Growth, Economics, employment, Eurozone, football, Germany, global economy, Greece, Macroeconomics, Productivity, soccer, World Cup | Leave a comment

EMU Break-up: Pay Now, Pay Later

Posted on December 11, 2011 by markcliffe

ING’s economics and strategy team has updated its report quantifying the impact of a possible fracture of Europe’s monetary union. emubreakup 011211The revised estimates suggest an even bigger blow to the region’s output: in a complete break-up the loss could … Continue reading →

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged Economics, employment, EMU, financial markets, financial system, Foreign exchange, global economy, growth, Interest rates, monetary policy | 1 Comment

The New Financial World

Posted on October 20, 2010 by markcliffe

The financial crisis is a major analytical challenge that will keep economists occupied for years to come. In a report published in 2008, I looked forward to the future shape of the financial world. Here’s a short summary: The new … Continue reading →