Tag Archives: global economy

Looking for Trouble

How politics could fuel downside risks to global markets It is easy to find downside risks to the outlook for the global economy and markets. Worse still, a recent ING report, entitled ‘Looking For Trouble’, highlights doubts about the ability … Continue reading

Posted in Brexit, Economic Growth, Macro, Macroeconomics, Politics, US Election | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Savers are Negative on Negative Rates

In recent weeks market turmoil has put negative interest rates firmly on to the centrals banks’ agenda. The Bank of Japan sprang a surprise by following the European Central Bank in moving into negative territory, and there is even talk … Continue reading

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

Globalization Disrupted : Will world trade continue to disappoint?

Since the onset of the financial crisis, world trade is no longer growing twice as fast as output. I examine the reasons behind this in this presentation, an updated version of one produced to support a panel debate at a … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Growth, Macro, Macroeconomics, Technology, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

The New Abnormal

It’s remarkable how pervasive ‘New Normal’ thinking still is, despite innumerable economic and financial market shocks. Forecasters continue to assume that the global economy will gravitate towards low but stable growth, regulators still aim to deliver a more stable financial … Continue reading

Posted in Bond Markets, Economic Growth, EMU, Innovation, Macro, Macroeconomics, Productivity, Technology, Uncategorized, US Treasury Bonds | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

US triumphs in the World Economic Cup

The legendary manager of Liverpool, Bill Shankly, once said, “Some people believe football is a matter of life and death… I can assure you it is much, much more important than that.” I’m tempted to agree, but sadly I get … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Growth, Football, Macro, Macroeconomics, Productivity, World Cup | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

EMU Break-up: Pay Now, Pay Later

ING’s economics and strategy team has updated its report quantifying the impact of a possible fracture of Europe’s monetary union. emubreakup 011211The revised estimates suggest an even bigger blow to the region’s output: in a complete break-up the loss could … Continue reading

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

The New Financial World

The financial crisis is a major analytical challenge that will keep economists occupied for years to come. In a report published in 2008, I looked forward to the future shape of the financial world. Here’s a short summary: The new … Continue reading

Posted in Macroeconomics | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments