Pandenomics
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Looking for trouble…
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Savers are Negative on Negative Rates
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Greek Crisis Lessons
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Globalization Disrupted
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The New Abnormal
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Warped World of Bonds
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EMU Roads to Survival
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EMU Break-up?
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Tag Archives: financial markets
Pandenomics – 15 ways that Covid-19 could change the world
The Covid-19 pandemic leaves us wrestling with a callous calculus: a crude and capricious trade-off between the tragic and huge loss of life and the many more livelihoods that will be lost. We are nowhere near knowing how bad it … Continue reading
Posted in Macroeconomics, Politics, Sustainability
Tagged China, consumers, Covid-19, Digital, Economics, employment, EU, financial markets, fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, Innovation, Interest rates, monetary policy, Pandemics, Policy, regulation, Sustainability, Technology, Trade, US
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Confessions of an Economic Forecaster
Economists’ forecasts are notoriously inaccurate. This fallibility is hardly a great surprise given that we live in an irretrievably uncertain world. So why do we keep doing it? What can we learn? Here are my eighteen secrets and myths about the … Continue reading
Savers are Negative on Negative Rates
In recent weeks market turmoil has put negative interest rates firmly on to the centrals banks’ agenda. The Bank of Japan sprang a surprise by following the European Central Bank in moving into negative territory, and there is even talk … Continue reading
Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics
Tagged Economic Growth, Economics, EMU, financial markets, global economy, growth, Macroeconomics, monetary policy, negative rates, saving
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The New Abnormal
It’s remarkable how pervasive ‘New Normal’ thinking still is, despite innumerable economic and financial market shocks. Forecasters continue to assume that the global economy will gravitate towards low but stable growth, regulators still aim to deliver a more stable financial … Continue reading
Posted in Bond Markets, Economic Growth, EMU, Innovation, Macro, Macroeconomics, Productivity, Technology, Uncategorized, US Treasury Bonds
Tagged asset prices, bond markets, ECB, economic cycle, European Central Bank, financial markets, Foreign exchange, global economy, Innovation, Interest rates, Productivity, regulation, Technology
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Draghi’s confidence trick is working a treat
Over the last few months there’s been a dramatic turnaround in capital flows to the Eurozone’s periphery, illustrating the success of ECB President Draghi’s rhetorical flourish last summer to do “whatever it takes” to support EMU. Today’s Financial Times carries … Continue reading
Posted in Bond Markets, EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics
Tagged bond markets, ECB, Economics, EMU, Euro, financial markets, monetary policy
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The Four Minute Solution to the Euro Crisis…
…complete with Dutch subtitles, here’s a video, posted originally on the website http://www.mejudice.nl. It summarises the key conclusions arising from the ‘Roads to Survival’ report about how EMU break-up may be avoided (see my June 5th post). But for now, … Continue reading
Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics
Tagged Economics, Euro, European Central Bank, Eurozone, financial markets, monetary policy, Policy
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Greco-German Games – No Winners
Suddenly the prospect of Greece leaving EMU looks horribly real. True, Greek voters continue to signal their continued enthusiasm for staying in. But this is at odds with their rejection of the austerity that is a precondition for the Eurozone’s … Continue reading
Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics
Tagged economic cycle, Economics, EMU, financial markets, Germany, Greece, monetary policy
2 Comments
EMU Break-up: Pay Now, Pay Later
ING’s economics and strategy team has updated its report quantifying the impact of a possible fracture of Europe’s monetary union. emubreakup 011211The revised estimates suggest an even bigger blow to the region’s output: in a complete break-up the loss could … Continue reading
Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics
Tagged Economics, employment, EMU, financial markets, financial system, Foreign exchange, global economy, growth, Interest rates, monetary policy
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The New Financial World
The financial crisis is a major analytical challenge that will keep economists occupied for years to come. In a report published in 2008, I looked forward to the future shape of the financial world. Here’s a short summary: The new … Continue reading
Posted in Macroeconomics
Tagged asset prices, consumers, economic cycle, financial markets, financial system, global economy, growth, regulation, saving
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