Tag Archives: financial markets

Pandenomics – 15 ways that Covid-19 could change the world

Posted on April 7, 2020 by markcliffe

The Covid-19 pandemic leaves us wrestling with a callous calculus: a crude and capricious trade-off between the tragic and huge loss of life and the many more livelihoods that will be lost. We are nowhere near knowing how bad it … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomics, Politics, Sustainability | Tagged China, consumers, Covid-19, Digital, Economics, employment, EU, financial markets, fiscal policy, Globalization, growth, Innovation, Interest rates, monetary policy, Pandemics, Policy, regulation, Sustainability, Technology, Trade, US | 2 Comments

Confessions of an Economic Forecaster

Posted on November 7, 2016 by markcliffe

Economists’ forecasts are notoriously inaccurate. This fallibility is hardly a great surprise given that we live in an irretrievably uncertain world. So why do we keep doing it? What can we learn? Here are my eighteen secrets and myths about the … Continue reading →

Posted in Big Data, Bond Markets, Economic Forecasting, Macro, Macroeconomics, Politics | Tagged asset prices, Big Data, bond markets, economic cycle, Economic Forecasting, financial markets, growth, Macroeconomics, Policy, Politics | 2 Comments

Savers are Negative on Negative Rates

Posted on February 12, 2016 by markcliffe

In recent weeks market turmoil has put negative interest rates firmly on to the centrals banks’ agenda. The Bank of Japan sprang a surprise by following the European Central Bank in moving into negative territory, and there is even talk … Continue reading →

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged Economic Growth, Economics, EMU, financial markets, global economy, growth, Macroeconomics, monetary policy, negative rates, saving | 9 Comments

The New Abnormal

Posted on November 7, 2014 by markcliffe

It’s remarkable how pervasive ‘New Normal’ thinking still is, despite innumerable economic and financial market shocks. Forecasters continue to assume that the global economy will gravitate towards low but stable growth, regulators still aim to deliver a more stable financial … Continue reading →

Posted in Bond Markets, Economic Growth, EMU, Innovation, Macro, Macroeconomics, Productivity, Technology, Uncategorized, US Treasury Bonds | Tagged asset prices, bond markets, ECB, economic cycle, European Central Bank, financial markets, Foreign exchange, global economy, Innovation, Interest rates, Productivity, regulation, Technology | 3 Comments

Draghi’s confidence trick is working a treat

Posted on January 29, 2013 by markcliffe

Over the last few months there’s been a dramatic turnaround in capital flows to the Eurozone’s periphery, illustrating the success of ECB President Draghi’s rhetorical flourish last summer to do “whatever it takes” to support EMU. Today’s Financial Times carries … Continue reading →

Posted in Bond Markets, EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged bond markets, ECB, Economics, EMU, Euro, financial markets, monetary policy | Leave a comment

The Four Minute Solution to the Euro Crisis…

Posted on October 11, 2012 by markcliffe

…complete with Dutch subtitles, here’s a video, posted originally on the website http://www.mejudice.nl. It summarises the key conclusions arising from the ‘Roads to Survival’ report about how EMU break-up may be avoided (see my June 5th post). But for now, … Continue reading →

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged Economics, Euro, European Central Bank, Eurozone, financial markets, monetary policy, Policy | Leave a comment

Greco-German Games – No Winners

Posted on May 17, 2012 by markcliffe

Suddenly the prospect of Greece leaving EMU looks horribly real. True, Greek voters continue to signal their continued enthusiasm for staying in. But this is at odds with their rejection of the austerity that is a precondition for the Eurozone’s … Continue reading →

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged economic cycle, Economics, EMU, financial markets, Germany, Greece, monetary policy | 2 Comments

EMU Break-up: Pay Now, Pay Later

Posted on December 11, 2011 by markcliffe

ING’s economics and strategy team has updated its report quantifying the impact of a possible fracture of Europe’s monetary union. emubreakup 011211The revised estimates suggest an even bigger blow to the region’s output: in a complete break-up the loss could … Continue reading →

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged Economics, employment, EMU, financial markets, financial system, Foreign exchange, global economy, growth, Interest rates, monetary policy | 1 Comment

The New Financial World

Posted on October 20, 2010 by markcliffe

The financial crisis is a major analytical challenge that will keep economists occupied for years to come. In a report published in 2008, I looked forward to the future shape of the financial world. Here’s a short summary: The new … Continue reading →