Tag Archives: financial markets

Confessions of an Economic Forecaster

Posted on November 7, 2016 by

Economists’ forecasts are notoriously inaccurate. This fallibility is hardly a great surprise given that we live in an irretrievably uncertain world. So why do we keep doing it? What can we learn? Here are my eighteen secrets and myths about the … Continue reading →

Posted in Big Data, Bond Markets, Economic Forecasting, Macro, Macroeconomics, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Savers are Negative on Negative Rates

Posted on February 12, 2016 by

In recent weeks market turmoil has put negative interest rates firmly on to the centrals banks’ agenda. The Bank of Japan sprang a surprise by following the European Central Bank in moving into negative territory, and there is even talk … Continue reading →

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

The New Abnormal

Posted on November 7, 2014 by

It’s remarkable how pervasive ‘New Normal’ thinking still is, despite innumerable economic and financial market shocks. Forecasters continue to assume that the global economy will gravitate towards low but stable growth, regulators still aim to deliver a more stable financial … Continue reading →

Posted in Bond Markets, Economic Growth, EMU, Innovation, Macro, Macroeconomics, Productivity, Technology, Uncategorized, US Treasury Bonds | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Draghi’s confidence trick is working a treat

Posted on January 29, 2013 by

Over the last few months there’s been a dramatic turnaround in capital flows to the Eurozone’s periphery, illustrating the success of ECB President Draghi’s rhetorical flourish last summer to do “whatever it takes” to support EMU. Today’s Financial Times carries … Continue reading →

Posted in Bond Markets, EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Four Minute Solution to the Euro Crisis…

Posted on October 11, 2012 by

…complete with Dutch subtitles, here’s a video, posted originally on the website http://www.mejudice.nl. It summarises the key conclusions arising from the ‘Roads to Survival’ report about how EMU break-up may be avoided (see my June 5th post). But for now, … Continue reading →

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Greco-German Games – No Winners

Posted on May 17, 2012 by

Suddenly the prospect of Greece leaving EMU looks horribly real. True, Greek voters continue to signal their continued enthusiasm for staying in. But this is at odds with their rejection of the austerity that is a precondition for the Eurozone’s … Continue reading →

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

EMU Break-up: Pay Now, Pay Later

Posted on December 11, 2011 by

ING’s economics and strategy team has updated its report quantifying the impact of a possible fracture of Europe’s monetary union. emubreakup 011211The revised estimates suggest an even bigger blow to the region’s output: in a complete break-up the loss could … Continue reading →

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment