Tag Archives: economic cycle

Confessions of an Economic Forecaster

Economists’ forecasts are notoriously inaccurate. This fallibility is hardly a great surprise given that we live in an irretrievably uncertain world. So why do we keep doing it? What can we learn? Here are my eighteen secrets and myths about the … Continue reading

Posted in Big Data, Bond Markets, Economic Forecasting, Macro, Macroeconomics, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The New Abnormal

It’s remarkable how pervasive ‘New Normal’ thinking still is, despite innumerable economic and financial market shocks. Forecasters continue to assume that the global economy will gravitate towards low but stable growth, regulators still aim to deliver a more stable financial … Continue reading

Posted in Bond Markets, Economic Growth, EMU, Innovation, Macro, Macroeconomics, Productivity, Technology, Uncategorized, US Treasury Bonds | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Greco-German Games – No Winners

Suddenly the prospect of Greece leaving EMU looks horribly real. True, Greek voters continue to signal their continued enthusiasm for staying in. But this is at odds with their rejection of the austerity that is a precondition for the Eurozone’s … Continue reading

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

The New Financial World

The financial crisis is a major analytical challenge that will keep economists occupied for years to come. In a report published in 2008, I looked forward to the future shape of the financial world. Here’s a short summary: The new … Continue reading

Posted in Macroeconomics | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments