Pandenomics
Click here to read the ING report
Looking for trouble…
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Savers are Negative on Negative Rates
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Greek Crisis Lessons
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Globalization Disrupted
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The New Abnormal
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Warped World of Bonds
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EMU Roads to Survival
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EMU Break-up?
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Category Archives: Uncategorized
We’re living on Planet VUCA, not Planet NGFS
In my latest article, published in the May 2023 edition of The Actuary magazine, I argue that official climate scenarios, promoted as the de facto standard by the likes of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), are no … Continue reading
Posted in Climate Change, Sustainability, Uncategorized
Tagged Climate scenarios, NetZero, Risk Management
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Pandenomics Revisited – Podcast
Back in April 2020, only a few weeks into the Covid-19 pandemic, I published a report entitled “Pandenomics – 15 Ways that Covid-19 could change the world”, with a subsequent spinoff for the CEPR’s VoxEU. Now that the pandemic is … Continue reading
Posted in Digital, Macroeconomics, Pandemic, Technology, Uncategorized
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Future of Banking – digital disruption, digital diversity
In this video for Oracle, I discuss the future of banking. Digitalisation means that banks will have to figure out how to best use data and combine it creatively with external data sources to provide better and more holistic services to their … Continue reading
Posted in Big Data, Digital, Fintech, Innovation, Network economics, Platforms, Technology, Uncategorized
Tagged Digital, Innovation, Network economics, Platforms, saving, Technology
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Forget the New Normal. A VoxEU column
Normality suggests that the crisis is behind us, that we again understand what’s happening, and that we can make predictions. It invites little sense of urgency to make radical policy adjustments. It tempts us into thinking policy ‘normalisation’ may be … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
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21 Lessons from the Greek Crisis
The refinancing deal struck on 13th July between Greece and its Eurozone partners left everyone bruised and unhappy. While it staved off the immediate threat of yet greater chaos from Greece being forced to abandon the euro, doubts remain … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Growth, EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics, Uncategorized
Tagged ECB, Economics, employment, EMU, Euro, Foreign exchange, Germany, Greece, Greek crisis, Grexit, Macroeconomics, monetary policy
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Globalization Disrupted : Will world trade continue to disappoint?
Since the onset of the financial crisis, world trade is no longer growing twice as fast as output. I examine the reasons behind this in this presentation, an updated version of one produced to support a panel debate at a … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Growth, Macro, Macroeconomics, Technology, Uncategorized
Tagged China, Economic Growth, Economics, FDI, Germany, global economy, Globalization, Investment, Offshoring, Technology, Trade, Trade Liberalisation, US
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The New Abnormal
It’s remarkable how pervasive ‘New Normal’ thinking still is, despite innumerable economic and financial market shocks. Forecasters continue to assume that the global economy will gravitate towards low but stable growth, regulators still aim to deliver a more stable financial … Continue reading
Posted in Bond Markets, Economic Growth, EMU, Innovation, Macro, Macroeconomics, Productivity, Technology, Uncategorized, US Treasury Bonds
Tagged asset prices, bond markets, ECB, economic cycle, European Central Bank, financial markets, Foreign exchange, global economy, Innovation, Interest rates, Productivity, regulation, Technology
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EMU: Fixing it is far cheaper than breaking it
Politicians in the ‘core’ countries of the Eurozone are toying with the idea of Greece leaving EMU, which would risk an exodus of other peripheral members. A new ING report suggests that this could be very costly. It assesses the … Continue reading
Posted in Bond Markets, EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics, Uncategorized
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Welcome
This is the personal website of Mark Cliffe, Visiting Professor at the London Institute of Banking & Finance, Board Advisor, Economic Consultant and former Chief Economist of the ING Group.
Posted in Uncategorized
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How Can EMU Survive?
Whether or not Greece stays in EMU, the pace of policy change is accelerating. Although the risks are rising, a road to EMU’s survival is possible. ING’s new report sets out three dimensions – reform, reflation and redistribution – along which it might be built. … Continue reading
Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics, Uncategorized
Tagged Euro, European Central Bank, Fiscal union
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Mark Cliffe 