Category Archives: Macroeconomics

Confessions of an Economic Forecaster

Economists’ forecasts are notoriously inaccurate. This fallibility is hardly a great surprise given that we live in an irretrievably uncertain world. So why do we keep doing it? What can we learn? Here are my eighteen secrets and myths about the … Continue reading

Posted in Big Data, Bond Markets, Economic Forecasting, Macro, Macroeconomics, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Looking for Trouble

How politics could fuel downside risks to global markets It is easy to find downside risks to the outlook for the global economy and markets. Worse still, a recent ING report, entitled ‘Looking For Trouble’, highlights doubts about the ability … Continue reading

Posted in Brexit, Economic Growth, Macro, Macroeconomics, Politics, US Election | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Savers are Negative on Negative Rates

In recent weeks market turmoil has put negative interest rates firmly on to the centrals banks’ agenda. The Bank of Japan sprang a surprise by following the European Central Bank in moving into negative territory, and there is even talk … Continue reading

Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

21 Lessons from the Greek Crisis

  The refinancing deal struck on 13th July between Greece and its Eurozone partners left everyone bruised and unhappy. While it staved off the immediate threat of yet greater chaos from Greece being forced to abandon the euro, doubts remain … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Growth, EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Globalization Disrupted : Will world trade continue to disappoint?

Since the onset of the financial crisis, world trade is no longer growing twice as fast as output. I examine the reasons behind this in this presentation, an updated version of one produced to support a panel debate at a … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Growth, Macro, Macroeconomics, Technology, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

The New Abnormal

It’s remarkable how pervasive ‘New Normal’ thinking still is, despite innumerable economic and financial market shocks. Forecasters continue to assume that the global economy will gravitate towards low but stable growth, regulators still aim to deliver a more stable financial … Continue reading

Posted in Bond Markets, Economic Growth, EMU, Innovation, Macro, Macroeconomics, Productivity, Technology, Uncategorized, US Treasury Bonds | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

US triumphs in the World Economic Cup

The legendary manager of Liverpool, Bill Shankly, once said, “Some people believe football is a matter of life and death… I can assure you it is much, much more important than that.” I’m tempted to agree, but sadly I get … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Growth, Football, Macro, Macroeconomics, Productivity, World Cup | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment