Pandenomics
Click here to read the ING report
Looking for trouble…
Click here to watch the video!
Savers are Negative on Negative Rates
Click here to read the ING report
Greek Crisis Lessons
Click here to read the ING report
Globalization Disrupted
Click here for ING presentation
The New Abnormal
Click to read the ING report
Warped World of Bonds
Click to read the ING report
EMU Roads to Survival
Click to read the ING report
EMU Break-up?
Click to read the ING report.
Category Archives: Macro
Forecasting is Fallible, But Necessary
In my first piece for Project Syndicate I build on my earlier post on the lessons for economic forecasters. The subtitle of their post prompted some questions about the usefulness of big data. There’s no doubt that economic forecasters can … Continue reading
Posted in Big Data, Economic Forecasting, Fintech, Innovation, Macro, Macroeconomics, Network economics, Politics, Technology
Tagged Big Data, Economic Forecasting, Economics, Innovation, Technology
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Confessions of an Economic Forecaster
Economists’ forecasts are notoriously inaccurate. This fallibility is hardly a great surprise given that we live in an irretrievably uncertain world. So why do we keep doing it? What can we learn? Here are my eighteen secrets and myths about the … Continue reading
Driverless Cars – The Route to Richer, Happier Lives
Driverless cars are already a reality. There’s still work to be done on the technology, and big challenges confront their widespread adoption. But there can be little doubt that they promise to be a transformative technology. Apart from boosting output … Continue reading
Looking for Trouble
How politics could fuel downside risks to global markets It is easy to find downside risks to the outlook for the global economy and markets. Worse still, a recent ING report, entitled ‘Looking For Trouble’, highlights doubts about the ability … Continue reading
Posted in Brexit, Economic Growth, Macro, Macroeconomics, Politics, US Election
Tagged Brexit, Economics, fiscal policy, global economy, helicopter money, Macroeconomics, monetary policy, Policy, Politics, US
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Savers are Negative on Negative Rates
In recent weeks market turmoil has put negative interest rates firmly on to the centrals banks’ agenda. The Bank of Japan sprang a surprise by following the European Central Bank in moving into negative territory, and there is even talk … Continue reading
Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics
Tagged Economic Growth, Economics, EMU, financial markets, global economy, growth, Macroeconomics, monetary policy, negative rates, saving
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21 Lessons from the Greek Crisis
The refinancing deal struck on 13th July between Greece and its Eurozone partners left everyone bruised and unhappy. While it staved off the immediate threat of yet greater chaos from Greece being forced to abandon the euro, doubts remain … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Growth, EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics, Uncategorized
Tagged ECB, Economics, employment, EMU, Euro, Foreign exchange, Germany, Greece, Greek crisis, Grexit, Macroeconomics, monetary policy
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Globalization Disrupted : Will world trade continue to disappoint?
Since the onset of the financial crisis, world trade is no longer growing twice as fast as output. I examine the reasons behind this in this presentation, an updated version of one produced to support a panel debate at a … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Growth, Macro, Macroeconomics, Technology, Uncategorized
Tagged China, Economic Growth, Economics, FDI, Germany, global economy, Globalization, Investment, Offshoring, Technology, Trade, Trade Liberalisation, US
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The New Abnormal
It’s remarkable how pervasive ‘New Normal’ thinking still is, despite innumerable economic and financial market shocks. Forecasters continue to assume that the global economy will gravitate towards low but stable growth, regulators still aim to deliver a more stable financial … Continue reading
Posted in Bond Markets, Economic Growth, EMU, Innovation, Macro, Macroeconomics, Productivity, Technology, Uncategorized, US Treasury Bonds
Tagged asset prices, bond markets, ECB, economic cycle, European Central Bank, financial markets, Foreign exchange, global economy, Innovation, Interest rates, Productivity, regulation, Technology
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US triumphs in the World Economic Cup
The legendary manager of Liverpool, Bill Shankly, once said, “Some people believe football is a matter of life and death… I can assure you it is much, much more important than that.” I’m tempted to agree, but sadly I get … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Growth, Football, Macro, Macroeconomics, Productivity, World Cup
Tagged Economic Growth, Economics, employment, Eurozone, football, Germany, global economy, Greece, Macroeconomics, Productivity, soccer, World Cup
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Draghi’s confidence trick is working a treat
Over the last few months there’s been a dramatic turnaround in capital flows to the Eurozone’s periphery, illustrating the success of ECB President Draghi’s rhetorical flourish last summer to do “whatever it takes” to support EMU. Today’s Financial Times carries … Continue reading
Posted in Bond Markets, EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics
Tagged bond markets, ECB, Economics, EMU, Euro, financial markets, monetary policy
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Mark Cliffe 