Pandenomics
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Looking for trouble…
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Savers are Negative on Negative Rates
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Greek Crisis Lessons
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Globalization Disrupted
Click here for ING presentation
The New Abnormal
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Warped World of Bonds
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EMU Roads to Survival
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EMU Break-up?
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Category Archives: EMU
Savers are Negative on Negative Rates
In recent weeks market turmoil has put negative interest rates firmly on to the centrals banks’ agenda. The Bank of Japan sprang a surprise by following the European Central Bank in moving into negative territory, and there is even talk … Continue reading
Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics
Tagged Economic Growth, Economics, EMU, financial markets, global economy, growth, Macroeconomics, monetary policy, negative rates, saving
9 Comments
21 Lessons from the Greek Crisis
The refinancing deal struck on 13th July between Greece and its Eurozone partners left everyone bruised and unhappy. While it staved off the immediate threat of yet greater chaos from Greece being forced to abandon the euro, doubts remain … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Growth, EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics, Uncategorized
Tagged ECB, Economics, employment, EMU, Euro, Foreign exchange, Germany, Greece, Greek crisis, Grexit, Macroeconomics, monetary policy
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The New Abnormal
It’s remarkable how pervasive ‘New Normal’ thinking still is, despite innumerable economic and financial market shocks. Forecasters continue to assume that the global economy will gravitate towards low but stable growth, regulators still aim to deliver a more stable financial … Continue reading
Posted in Bond Markets, Economic Growth, EMU, Innovation, Macro, Macroeconomics, Productivity, Technology, Uncategorized, US Treasury Bonds
Tagged asset prices, bond markets, ECB, economic cycle, European Central Bank, financial markets, Foreign exchange, global economy, Innovation, Interest rates, Productivity, regulation, Technology
3 Comments
Draghi’s confidence trick is working a treat
Over the last few months there’s been a dramatic turnaround in capital flows to the Eurozone’s periphery, illustrating the success of ECB President Draghi’s rhetorical flourish last summer to do “whatever it takes” to support EMU. Today’s Financial Times carries … Continue reading
Posted in Bond Markets, EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics
Tagged bond markets, ECB, Economics, EMU, Euro, financial markets, monetary policy
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The Four Minute Solution to the Euro Crisis…
…complete with Dutch subtitles, here’s a video, posted originally on the website http://www.mejudice.nl. It summarises the key conclusions arising from the ‘Roads to Survival’ report about how EMU break-up may be avoided (see my June 5th post). But for now, … Continue reading
Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics
Tagged Economics, Euro, European Central Bank, Eurozone, financial markets, monetary policy, Policy
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EMU: Fixing it is far cheaper than breaking it
Politicians in the ‘core’ countries of the Eurozone are toying with the idea of Greece leaving EMU, which would risk an exodus of other peripheral members. A new ING report suggests that this could be very costly. It assesses the … Continue reading
Posted in Bond Markets, EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics, Uncategorized
4 Comments
Warped World of Bonds – The Story Continues
A new ING presentation fleshes out and updates the argument set out in the previous ‘Warped World’ report (see below): Forecasters are struggling to cope with heightened political and policy risk (the recent reaction to the ECB’s rhetorical flourishes being … Continue reading
Posted in Bond Markets, EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics, US Treasury Bonds
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Bonds in a Warped World, not a ‘New Normal’
In a ING new report entitled ‘The Warped World of Bonds’, I argue that the idea that we might be settling into a ‘new normal’ is fanciful. With the financial crisis still mutating, the valuation basis of the bond markets … Continue reading
Posted in Bond Markets, EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics
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How Can EMU Survive?
Whether or not Greece stays in EMU, the pace of policy change is accelerating. Although the risks are rising, a road to EMU’s survival is possible. ING’s new report sets out three dimensions – reform, reflation and redistribution – along which it might be built. … Continue reading
Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics, Uncategorized
Tagged Euro, European Central Bank, Fiscal union
1 Comment
Greco-German Games – No Winners
Suddenly the prospect of Greece leaving EMU looks horribly real. True, Greek voters continue to signal their continued enthusiasm for staying in. But this is at odds with their rejection of the austerity that is a precondition for the Eurozone’s … Continue reading
Posted in EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics
Tagged economic cycle, Economics, EMU, financial markets, Germany, Greece, monetary policy
2 Comments
Mark Cliffe 