Category Archives: Bond Markets

Confessions of an Economic Forecaster

Economists’ forecasts are notoriously inaccurate. This fallibility is hardly a great surprise given that we live in an irretrievably uncertain world. So why do we keep doing it? What can we learn? Here are my eighteen secrets and myths about the … Continue reading

Posted in Big Data, Bond Markets, Economic Forecasting, Macro, Macroeconomics, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The New Abnormal

It’s remarkable how pervasive ‘New Normal’ thinking still is, despite innumerable economic and financial market shocks. Forecasters continue to assume that the global economy will gravitate towards low but stable growth, regulators still aim to deliver a more stable financial … Continue reading

Posted in Bond Markets, Economic Growth, EMU, Innovation, Macro, Macroeconomics, Productivity, Technology, Uncategorized, US Treasury Bonds | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Draghi’s confidence trick is working a treat

Over the last few months there’s been a dramatic turnaround in capital flows to the Eurozone’s periphery, illustrating the success of ECB President Draghi’s rhetorical flourish last summer to do “whatever it takes” to support EMU. Today’s Financial Times carries … Continue reading

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EMU: Fixing it is far cheaper than breaking it

Politicians in the ‘core’ countries of the Eurozone are toying with the idea of Greece leaving EMU, which would risk an exodus of other peripheral members. A new ING report suggests that this could be very costly. It assesses the … Continue reading

Posted in Bond Markets, EMU, Macro, Macroeconomics, Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Warped World of Bonds – The Story Continues

A new ING presentation fleshes out and updates the argument set out in the previous ‘Warped World’ report (see below): Forecasters are struggling to cope with heightened political and policy risk (the recent reaction to the ECB’s rhetorical flourishes being … Continue reading

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Bonds in a Warped World, not a ‘New Normal’

In a ING new report entitled ‘The Warped World of Bonds’, I argue that the idea that we might be settling into a ‘new normal’ is fanciful. With the financial crisis still mutating, the valuation basis of the bond markets … Continue reading

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