This is the personal website of Mark Cliffe, Chief Economist of the ING Group.
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Looking for trouble…
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Savers are Negative on Negative Rates
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Greek Crisis Lessons
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Globalization Disrupted
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The New Abnormal
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Warped World of Bonds
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EMU Roads to Survival
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EMU Break-up?
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Mark Cliffe, I am a journalist based in Rome. I am constantly looking for updates and analysis on eurozone and Monti government. This week I will be covering the summit of Euro leaders in Rome for XINHUA, the Chinese service. I am interested in getting your latest take on Greece and Monti’s proposal to use Euro bailout funds .
Please send me an e-mail with your contact details to mark.cliffe@uk.ing.com. Thanks for your interest, Best regards, Mark
Dear Sir,
I just discovered your page. Actually it is interesting but I dot quiet agree with you idea of fixing the euro. Let me explain
1) re inflation: probably not gone a happen since Germany is allergic to it. And by the way it is their right.
2) deflation: due to sticky wage and prices that might take forever.
3) redistribution: I do not believe that this is a good idea. To see why simply look at you southern neighbor, Belgium. 2 peoples in one country, transfers from the north to the south. Result? Increasing pressure from the north for these to stop or to get more control over how the money is spend. However the south is reluctant to decrease the transfers or to concede control over them (yea they are French speaker the others are dutch speakers not the same people, pride kicks in). Result? High political instability (more than 500 days to form a government !!!). What I mean is the following: federal Europe can exists BUT this will not be a democratic structure anymore. You cannot past people by force together without expecting tensions.
I will go ever further. Federal state will increase tension. As a kid I grew up in Yougoslavia. This was a federal country with 5 different peoples in it. It lasted as long as there was a “strong leader” (dictator). The day he died things turned nasty. Actually, it is not very well known in but the trouble began because Slovenia which was rich, wanted to leave the federation. It was opposed to the internal transfers (which were favoring the Serbians). Here federal structures lead to tensions and trouble (although external involvement also played a role).
Sarkozy said that if the euro falls then the EU falls. I do not agree with that. Actually we need to get rid of it. At least a bunch of countries need to get out.
I like history and sociology. there is a French africanologue, Bernard Lugan, which I like. He tells frequently that a good management principle is: “one people one land, good borders make good neighborhoods”. Well one currency one people, good currency make good partners.